The chances of winning the Lottery (UK) are 1 in approximately 14 million. To put these odds in context, suppose you purchased one lottery ticket per week. 13,983,816 weeks is roughly 269,000 years; In a quarter-million years of play, one would only expect to win the jackpot once.If you play the US Mega Millions the stats are 1 chance in a mind boggling 175,711,536 It's therefore slightly unnerving to my brain that a Professor from JPL ( Jet Propulsion Laboratory) has estimated that the chances of asteroid 2007 WD5 smashing into Mars on Jan 30th 2008 is just 1 in 75!
Hmm, I'm no mathematical genius but aren't those rather short odds? Certainly if seventy five of us were standing in a room and had just been told that one of us was about to win the lottery, I'd be getting fairly excited!
A 1-in-75 shot is "wildly unusual," said Steve Chesley, an astronomer with the Near-Earth Object office, which routinely tracks about 5,000 objects in Earth's neighborhood.
"We're used to dealing with odds like one-in-a-million," Chesley said. "Something with a one-in-a-hundred chance makes us sit up straight in our chairs."
The asteroid,, is about 160 feet across, which puts it in the range of the space rock that exploded over Siberia. That explosion, the largest impact event in recent history, felled 80 million trees over 830 square miles.Before we get too carried away it should be stressed that the people who know about these things estimate the odds will lengthen again over the next few weeks and an impact is unlikely. We can also remind ourselves that nothing happened to us here on Earth in 1994 when Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 crashed into Jupiter. What is interesting however is that Mars is currently very close, in astronomical terms, to Earth - far far closer than Jupiter could ever be and much closer than is normal. In the event of an impact of a huge asteroid on Mars at this time, one has to wonder what effects shockwaves reverberating around in relatively close Space could have on our planet. Think of stones dropping into the middle of a pond - those on the waters edge invariably get a ripple at their feet.
The Tunguska object broke up in midair, but the Martian atmosphere is so thin that an asteroid would probably plummet to the surface, digging a crater half a mile wide, Chesley said.
Normally I wouldn't give stories like this much time, I'd leave all the scaremongering to the doomsday forums. However it cannot be ignored that we are currently witnessing some other unusual events involving the Red Planet, namely its aforementioned proximity to Earth and the occultation of Mars by a just full Moon (i.e. Sun. Mars and Moon align although the occultation occurs shortly after the Moon is technically full). Additionally Mars is in opposition to Jupiter and Jupiter has just entered the sign of 'rocks and hard material', Capricorn.
To my mind the latter opposition speaks of the threat receding as and when the aspect completes on the 27th December, but symbolically Mars (and therefore by correspondence those born under the sign of Aries and Scorpio) will be under an unusual amount of attention for the next few weeks.
Mars moves into Gemini on 1st January so either the asteroid may split into two or attention will also fall on the Asteroid 2007 TU24 which coincidentally is a huge body making a close pass by Earth on January 28th .
On January 30th 2008, the current anticipated ' WD5 Asteroid impact' date, Mars will be closely opposed to the Galactic Centre and in sesquisquare (135) to the Sun whilst the Sun and Pluto will be in parallel declination. Heliocentrically there will be a Mars/Venus/Uranus grand trine still in orb, so it is still possible this asteroid will surprise us in some way. Aries and Scorpio should mark that last week in January in their diary and be alert for the unexpected - especially in romantic and financial concerns.
One other thing we cannot ignore is that Pluto will have just entered Capricorn on 'impact date'. This is intriguing because again Capricorn is associated with rocks and hard material and it is an Earth sign. My instinct is that we are going to become very more aware, as we move through the era of Pluto in Capricorn, of hazardous space material, comets, asteroids etc and the effect they can have on the Earth and our biosystems.
Many people believe that the Mayan End Date of 2012 is associated with foreknowledge of the return of a long-term Comet which will affect Earth and its inhabitants. In this respect I thought it would be interesting to see what similarities the 'Mars Impact' date has in common with the Mayan End date chart. Intriguingly there are quite a few correlations. Click chart to enlarge.
This could well point to the increased fear factor and 'hype' surrounding both dates but it may also point to some disturbance that affects Earth or the revelation of some new understanding about the nature of space objects such as asteroids. It may be opportune for me to point out here that I have never believed that 2012 will coincide with mass extinction but I do think the coming years could be very interesting indeed in terms of expanding our awareness of our position in the Cosmos and our understanding of time and Space.
Finally, I read an article this morning where someone was noticing an increase in electrical malfunctions at this time. I can relate to this. I have had fuses and light bulbs blowing left, right and centre. Maybe it is just the increased seasonal strain on the grid system with more people buying electrical items and illuminating their houses and trees for Christmas.
What intrigues me though is that there are reports that telepathy is also on the increase. This would be symbolic of an increase in electrical activity in the brain. Over Christmas why not try and experiment with your nearest and dearest. When someones back is turned towards you, speak in your mind to them. Say something repeatedly in your head like 'What's that on your shoulder?' or 'Scratch your leg now' and then wait and see how many times that person will indeed suddenly start scratching their shoulder or brushing off some mysterious object on their leg. It beats playing Monopoly for the thousandth time!
Have fun with it and Happy Christmas!
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